John’s Sales Projections for all systems and why

[XboxEvolved]

Here are my sales projections and why:

Xbox 360
Currently: 11.3 million worldwide

End of 2007/why: 15 million, spurred by Halo 3, the price drops, ramped up production thanks to more factories producing 360s. I don’t think they will stop making the current chips, rather they will phase them out during the quite season of 2008 and then start using the 65nm chips completely. Besides Halo 3 you have many sports titles, Mass Effect, the recently released Bioshock, and so on. Many sales at different retailers, along with deals with getting a Core will spur sales as well.

End of 2008/why: 25 million, selling over 15 million more than it’s predecessor and one year in advance of that. Sometime between April-August we will see a price drop of $250/w accessory and or game with Core, $350 Premium/w game possibly, and $400 Elite. The price drop will likely happen months after the PS3’s. A new system will likely be introduced as well. Another possible outcome is the Core will become a premium with a 20 gb HD, and all accessories, the Premium will get the 120GB HD, and a bigger, 200GB hd will be created for the elite. This will help out with the new video services that will be on Live by then. By years end there should be at least 10 million people on Xbox Live. Big name titles include: Halo Wars, Too Human, Mass Effect 2, Banjo Kazooie 3, Grand Theft Auto IV, Splinter Cell Conviction, Alan Wake, DMC4, RE5, Fallout 3, Silent Hill 5

End of 2009/why: 50 million, likely to be announced at a game event, Microsoft will be making plenty of money off the Xbox venture by now, and in fact turning massive profit. In order to maximize profits, the Core will go down to $200, the premium will go to $300, and the Elite will be $350. What will be even more interesting is it is likely that Live will either be free or discounted as more profit is turned from downloadable, and it would make more sense to allow people to play and be encouraged to buy new content which Microsoft makes money off of. The doubling of profits comes from the runoff effect of older titles and the fact that you can buy the system for only $200.
Big name titles include: Fable 2, Too Human 2, Mass Effect 3, Viva Pinata 2, GTAIV game, Ninja Gaiden 2, a major Square Enix title, Metal Gear Solid 4, Peter Jackson’s Halo game, original Bungie IP

End of 2010/why: 60 million, there probably will not be a price drop; by this time Microsoft will probably want to make sure they make plenty of profit, and as this will probably be the biggest year in terms of games for the system I wouldn’t blame them. By this time they will be talking about the next Halo Bungie project, or another Bungie project. Other notables may be a Rareware title, Jade Empire 2. This will be the system’s fifth year, and I do believe this console generation will be longer than other ones due to costs of development and technology. After the new Halo game is released, Microsoft may talk some about their next console.
End of 2011/why: 65 million: The Core finally says it’s swan song, the Premium is dropped down to $200, the Elite is $300, possibly the ‘other console’ that is out is $350. Will be cheaper everything across the board, including game prices by this time. The marketing will try to position it against Nintendo’s new system. New console is set to be shipped either this year or next year.

2012: 75 million: much like the PlayStation brand, Microsoft will be able to carry the Xbox brand for longer with 360, and could drop the name Xbox and market it simply as 360, especially in Japan. Somewhere along the line Microsoft will introduce a slim xbox 360 that uses a 80GB flash drive for $200, the product could possibly launch when the new Xbox launches as an alternative.

2013: 80 million; new Xbox console launches

2014: 100 million; price dropped to $150 to clear inventory; discontinued

TOTAL RUN: 9 years v 4 years for Xbox 1

[XboxEvolved]

Wii
Currently: 10.5 million worldwide
End 2007: 16 million worldwide, the system gets a lot of Mario, Smash Bros and other stuff, 3rd party support is a tad better; Nintendo officially touts it is outselling the Xbox 360. A new DS may be shown at TGS

End 2008: 35 million, a worldwide price drop of $50 off respectively will make it an even more attractive buy, along with some more first party games, and way better third party support. Possibly a redesign of the system, maybe a new feature. New DS should be out by now, helps out Wii more.

End 2009: 50 million, ????

End of 2010: 60 million, a new Nintendo system will either be discussed, or sold by 2010 or 2011, not sure about anything else.

End of 2011: 80 million new Nintendo home console, old one still out, but much like with GBA and DS, the popularity of the new system will gradually phase out Wii.
TOTAL RUN: 5 years v 4 years GC

PS3
Currently: 4.4 million
End 2007: 8 million , A little title help from Heavenly Sword, sports titles, some other titles; holiday price drop of $500 for the new console.

End 2008: 18 million, A drastic price drop of $400 happens in time for big release titles, becomes more affordable for the faithful, and people who just think PlayStation means videogames.GTA IV, MGS4, RE5, DMC4, New Final Fantasy comes at tail end of year.

End 2009: 35 million, Assuming that Blu-Ray “wins” it will get a massive boost because of this. Another massive boost is thanks to BD winning, the price drops down to $350 entry price. Many new games, Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts helps out a lot. If it does all this, then all the bets Sony had made would have paid off.

End 2010: 55 million, selling an astounding 20 million more is quite a feat, but possible thanks to dropping down to $300 and finally getting the massive library of games Sony fans have come to expect.

End 2011: 65 million, selling slightly lower than a PS system typically does at this point in it’s life, Sony can’t afford to drop the price any lower for the time being, relies heavily on profits from games and accessories, video game division is in the black and making profit again. The PS4 may be talked about

End 2012: 80 million, the Sony group delivers a massive combo; not only does the PS3 go down to $250, but it also has a redesign which is much smaller, but with just as many features. The PS4 is released, much to the surprise of consumers and gamers alike for the astounding price of $600 (gasp). Sony will take it’s biggest hit in history due to all these changes.

2013: 90 million 2014: discontinued
TOTAL RUN: 7 years v 8 years PS2

TOTALS:
Xbox 360: 100 million
PlayStation 3: 90 million/50 million if Blu Ray were to fail
Wii: 80 million

I predicted this data by trends, previous trends, current trends of growth, and on fair and balanced assumptions about where the industry is heading. In the case of Wii, it’s growth is MASSIVE being able to outpace the 360 by 15 million. I do strongly believe however, that it will be phased out, and that Nintendo home consoles will start cycling “in between” Sony and MS systems, so while the next Nintendo system could do even better than Wii somehow, it will likely be phased out or replaced by 2014-2015, just a year or so after the systems from MS and Sony come out, and it could possibly even directly compete with those systems in every way.

The case of PlayStaiton 3, the one fundamental problem with Sony’s strategy is they rely on the success of Blu-Ray; if BD were to not do well, or be phased out even, then the PS3 numbers probably wouldn’t hit 90 million, it would possibly be to the tune of 50 million or less. The price, compared to Wii and 360 will be a huge issue too as it likely won’t even hit the console price sweet spot of $200 in it’s entire life span.

The Xbox 360 will be the “PlayStation 2” of this generation, meaning it will get shitloads of good games, but in the end you have to wade through tons of crap, tons of badly made systems, and other problems. I do believe that about the last two years of Xbox 360’s life span will be Microsoft “cracking” the Japanese consumer, and will sell it as a entirely new product leading up to the new Xbox system. If HD DVD wins or loses will not affect the console at all; the machines will be produced faster than even the Wii thanks to it being out longer, and easier to make. Traditionally, the second home console of a company is the best performing, best selling, and so on, so the next Xbox will probably do worse due to timing, and pricing issues with a high-definition format. Depending on how you look at it, Wii “wins” or 360 “wins”.

[frosty]

Although I disagree with your short term predictions (price cut for PS3 plus MGS4, GT5 and the FF games will have a bigger effect than that) the long term isn't so far off as depicting a rather close race. However I feel you are being a bit too generous for 360, as it will never truly win over the Japanese over Sony or Nintendo (especially Ninty). They are very loyal to their national brand names. Personally I feel Wii will pull a DS and stay strong, and the true race will be between Sony and MS. PS3 has a lot going for it not only in games, but features as well (such as home, DVR, remote play, Blu-Ray, media server compatibility, etc). 360 has some of that, but PS3's featured coupled with it's stellar software support (even at $600 at launch it was still able to secure some of the heaviest hitting exclusives the market has ever seen) it will be a much harder race for MS than many think.

Also, if MS doesn't clear out the billions in debt that the Xbox has generated (4 billion from last gen, and already at 1.5 billion due to defective systems this gen) then there may not be another Xbox.

[curryking1]

I kind of like those predictions, they don't seem to off.

I think I might decrease all of them a bit, and I might decrease PS3 a little more.

For Wii, PS3, 360 my guesses would be for the end of say 2010 or something.... 75 mil, 55 or 60 mil, and 70 mil or something.

My PS3 guess is the one I have least confidence in my own guess tho, just because BluRay appeal down the line is really hard to gauge and see when it's appeal will be really effective and yada yada yada and what kind of pushing force it will provide, I guess my guess could range from anywhere like 55 mil to 85 mil, kind of like your own guess with 50 mil to 90 mil.

Then there's always that little bit where I think the PS3 may very well be able to hit 100 or 120 mil simply because of a cheap cost for the last 2, 3 years of it's main lifecycle and the BluRay.

[Luis]

I'm afraid the 360 prediction is way off. Just read Frosty's post.

[Viper]

I'd just like to comment on GC's lifespan. Unlike Xbox, it was 5 years, not 4. 2001-2006.

[XboxEvolved]

Also, if MS doesn't clear out the billions in debt that the Xbox has generated (4 billion from last gen, and already at 1.5 billion due to defective systems this gen) then there may not be another Xbox.

Robbie Bach has stated several times that Microsoft expects the Xbox business to make it into black by the end of this year thanks to Halo 3 and massive production cost reduction of the 360.

Also my 360 predictions are based on the fact that Microsoft completely remarkets the 360 as something different than it is in Japan, and heavy reliance on NA; which I believe it will "win" by a longshot.

All the console numbers may seem to be a "bit" but look at what at least MS and Sony say; how they are both interested in making their systems a 10 year business much like the PS2. Then look at the fact that every single one of these machines has sold faster than anything the previous generation, and the current trends; the entire world is catching up to Japan in terms of how videogames are looked at.

I look at my own area as some evidence of this: I live in a city that has a population of roughly 26k, there are six dedicated game stores; 2 towns over 8 exits down there are 2 more game stores, and 4 exits from that 1 other one. Within 2 counties in a very low populated area there are 10 dedicated gamestores. The fact that Halo 3 is set to outsell Halo 2 another great one. The Wii and DS are fast becoming the "gateway drug" to videogames for many people, and PS3 and 360 are the crack cocaine that will keep people in.

I think my predictions are incredibly accuarate. Also I guess you could say five years for GC, but honestly man the thing was deader than even Xbox in 2005-2006.

[Carlos]

Well, john has a point on that GC comment there.

[Luis]

I think my predictions are incredibly accuarate.

This kind of statements give no credibility to your estimations whatsoever, which are full of wishful thinking rather than with realistic outlooks I must say.

How can you seriously believe the 360 will sell 25 million units in 2009 alone??? With the inability to ever catch up in the Japanese market and being outsold in most if not all European countries now and in the near future, I'd be surprised if it sold anywhere near 15 million with price cuts and killer games. Man, even the PS2 didn't manage to sell all 25 million shipped systems in 2002 with lower prices and hugely successful games, and it was leading sales worldwide by a wide margin over its competitors - something that cannot be said about the 360.

[Viper]

All the console numbers may seem to be a "bit" but look at what at least MS and Sony say; how they are both interested in making their systems a 10 year business much like the PS2. Then look at the fact that every single one of these machines has sold faster than anything the previous generation, and the current trends; the entire world is catching up to Japan in terms of how videogames are looked at.

The 10 year cycle is wholly dependent on sales and 3rd party support for the first 5 years. If it isn't there in the first 5, neither will the next 5.

The PS3 is NOT selling at a faster rate than the PS2. Who smoked a crack pipe and blew that smoke up your whitey hiney?

The X360 is tracking slightly higher than the Xbox but not by much. Xbox did 25 million in 4 years yet you have 50 million down for X360 for 4 years.

Also....
2009 - 25 million in one year? That's even above DS levels. PS2 didn't even hit that at its peak.
2010 - Only 10 million the following year?
2011 - But an increase to 15 million the next?????

You don't know Pachter personally do you?



Based on your predictions but at just 5 years:
X360 - 60 million
PS3 - 65 million
Wii - 80 million

I like the close run here. Sales for X360 and PS3 both need a really hit a new gear to make this though. They're both looking at Xbox/GC sales rates which would give them about 25 million instead of 60-65 so they need to double what they're doing now and stay that way...not just spikes. Wii seems about accurate provided it can maintain the momentum. DS did in the face of superior tech so Wii has a precedent to follow. They just need to execute it.

[XboxEvolved]

PS2 sales would slow and speed up varying by year and market conditions. When you predict something as incredibly random as say, this generation, there will be a lot of radical parts in the overall scheme. The PS3, to my knowledge did sell faster in US than PS2 in the same amount of time, that is according to Sony stats though and could be shipped, not actually sold.

As I stated before though, gaming in general is more popular so I believe that justifies this list. Predicting isn't an exact science either, but I do believe that when prices will drop, how much, and when is the most accurate part of the entire thing. You can put in a few 100 factors into sales, with different variations and equations. One way you look at it, PS3 could completely and utterly fail, another 360, another Wii. Like I said, I am just looking at the trends, facts, etc and figuring it out from there. Just bookmark this page and we will all see how accurate I am in the future.

[Viper]

Sony's line about PS3 outselling PS2 was worldwide BUT they failed to mention how the PS3 was given the US and Japan launches together but PS2 for the same time frame was Japan only and had shortages. Kind of an important tid bit of data when comparing, eh?

The unpredictability factors for this is why I grant your projections as a plausible though doubtful. Almost like they are best case scenarios for each but I don't think you can have best case scenarios play out for all 3 together. That might be the way to look at your numbers as best case scenarios, or close to it, for each.

[XboxEvolved]

Well in many ways its like predicting the weather a few years from now; there are patterns, times of the years, and trends, but it is always unpredictable.

Im also pretty sure that Wii will be "phased out" earlier than PS3 and 360. I used to post on another forum alot, you guys may have heard of it, the AMN boards

While I can never disclose my sources, my source told me 2 years prior to the Wii even being revealed that it would have visuals similiar to GameCube, I put my findings up there, and no one believed me. I also received info in 2004 about there being 2 versions of the Xbox 360, and that it may be possible to not have an HD, something I didn't personally believe, but hey, it came true.

If I wanted to play it conservative though, if we are to look at figures by 2010 I would peg them at 70 million Wii, 50 million 360, 30 million PS3.

That is being incredibly conservative though, and ignoring any and all trends and the facts as they are now about how the market is going, and where it will go.

[Viper]

While the insider info you had may have proven well minded, it doesn't give any direction for your sales predictions.

Wii's phase out is some funny stuff. A console with a huge fanbase and strong 3rd party support doesn't get phased out just because it's weaker (see PS2).


Keep in mind, we will see new consoles in the same 5-6 year cycle we usually do. I don't know if you fall under this category or not but many that feel Wii won't survive as long as the others also feel the Wii will not even last the full cycle. One of the reason for continued support beyond a new console is likened to the PS/PS3 situation where a dev will have far more success on PS2 right now than PS3 so continued support can also be seen as a negative not for that console but it's replacement. Is Sony's 10 year plan a foot of support behind the PS3 or a foot of caution to the initial success of the PS4?

[XboxEvolved]

Well if you have been paying attention, you can draw more than a -similarities- in Apple and Nintendo's strategies. Both originally underdogs are now leading in their fields which practically make the hobby a lifestyle.

Look at DS; the DS as it was, was doing fine for quite sometime but Nintendo decided to phase it out and make Lite; proving to be even more popular. The same in some way or another will happen to Wii. Don't you find it funny how neither Sony nor Microsoft seem to worry about, and in fact almost support Nintendo? All the companies know what the other is doing, and I'm sure MS has an even better idea than the information I found.

Also I doubt we will see the same five-six year cycle we had previously. Let us look at a few differences:

Prices for the "3 main systems" started out considerably cheaper; even the Wii, which uses super cheap parts, many of which are redesigned GC parts is $250.

Every single console generation either a proven format or a format that the company had complete control over was used. In the case of the PS3 at least, this is not the case. Contrary to what BD supporters will say, it is in no way a proven format. It is no more proven than say, Beta-max, or Mini-Disc at this point. This plays a major role, and I doubt Sony would even launch the PS4 unless A) we are no where near a clear choice for a new format, or B) A format has won

Microsoft, while will make back their losses from the entire Xbox project within the next few months (despite a billion loss on repairs) they will want to stretch the system out as much as possible. The original Xbox plan, a plan co-written by Bill Gates known basically as the "10 Year X-Box Project Plan" started in 2000, the Xbox 360 was actually part of the plan, with no third console in this plan, meaning basically that a new plan for Xbox 3 and an Xbox 3 would have to be out by 2010 possibly. I don't see that happening.

Many developers and the publishers seem to think that the PS3 and Xbox 360 will be relevant for far longer than the Xbox and PS2 were (well Xbox at least). It is just a lot of factors. I don't see any new home consoles from Sony or MS until 2011-2012; the only way I can see it happening 2011 or earlier is if Sony really wasn't bullshitting and the PS3 really does have all this crazy untapped power, but that is doubtful. I remember reading a lot about the Emotion Engine in PS2, in terms of what it is and does it is far ahead of its time, but what it actually did was stupid. Sony claimed it could do FFVIII CG quality visuals in game..that is something that a lot of decent PS3 and 360 games can do, but I've never seen on PS2; not even Xbox.

The only other things I can see that would make them bring their systems out faster is some kind of massive technological advance, or PC catching up hardcore. I remember during Xbox, the PC just started to outperform the Xbox visually during the tail end of the systems lifespan, but you could still get many of the same games with basically the same experience (ie Half-Life 2, Doom 3).

The current one now people are talking about is Crysis but I would put down any amount of money that both PS3 and 360 could do better.

[Viper]

So much to cover.

DSLite is not a new system. It's like PStwo though they did enhanced the screen. Your allusion of phase out is new console.

If they support Nintendo so much, why do they constantly insult it and why did MS claim Nintendo to be a bigger rival than Sony for this gen?

Price. I love this. You claim it cost more yet anytime a supporter of PS3's price stands up to speak they toss up the inflation issue which shows that game systems don't cost more now than they did back in the NES days. Development costs have far outpaced inflation but actual console prices have kept steady so that argument doesn't hold up....unless you want to move ti on over to development costs for which I'll back you on that half.

What does acceptance of a format have to do with longevity of a system?


Que el fuck? MS make up the billions in losses in a few months? Sony made $2 billion in profits from 2000-2005 from PS2. How in the fuck is MS going to make up $5.5 billion in losses in 1/10th that time frame? They've posted 1 profitable quarter since the projects inception. 1. Now they may start to make quarterly profits in the next few months but erase the debt already established? Not without Bill Gates himself donating that money directly into the division.

"I don't see any new home consoles from Sony or MS until 2011-2012"
2011 would be 6 years for MS and 2012 would be 6 years from Sony. Didn't I say the usual 5-6 year cycle?

PC only outperforming Xbox during the tail end? What the hell were you using, an E-machines? PC was beating Xbox in graphical performance before Xbox even came out.

"The current one now people are talking about is Crysis but I would put down any amount of money that both PS3 and 360 could do better."
ha, ahaha. Hahaaaaa. I can't rip you of your money like that. Some would take advantage of you but.....

[XboxEvolved]

I guess you weren't around for Wii60, or the fact that Microsoft and Sony both have said they like how Nintendo reels in new gamers. Also I don't know exactly where you are coming from with the price thing; you aren't selling this to every 22 year old asshole with expendable cash to get tens of millions of sales; you are selling it to families which have more important things to worry about than to spend $600; $400; or even $300 in many cases on what is essentially a toy that does some other neat stuff.

Here is reality<====================================Here is Viper

Also on PC, in terms of visuals and sound nothing was really noticeably better on the platform until Doom 3 and Half-Life 2, at least that was worth two shits to most people. Microsoft does expect to make up losses on the Xbox division, and it has a lot to do with the fact that their pricing arrangements are far better with 360, a settlement was made with nVidia back in Xbox days, and for every download on xbox Live, ever subscription, Microsoft makes some money there as well. Much of this growth and profitability is driven by Halo 3 especially.

Also let me ask you a few basic questions about Crysis before you go on with your technical rants, or how you could fuck me out of money.

1-Have you ever played Crysis single-player?
2-Have you ever played Crysis multiplayer?
3-Have you ever talk to anyone at Crytek or EA about Crysis?

With that out of the way, let me just say yeah..it is technically possible. Hey, as I understand it, the PC version of Bioshock looks slightly better than 360, but that is thanks to higher resolutions, oh but to get that you would need...a dual core cpu, 2gb+ memory, 512VRAM card (DirectX10 card preferred), 8GB free space..so yeah, I'm not certain but I would think that their would be enough intelligent people at Crytek to get the game running right, just as smooth, etc on 360 and PS3 if they really wanted to. I remember when they kept saying Battlefield would never come to consoles but oh how EA (which makes it's money off of fucking multi-platform titles mind you, not the dismal PC market) managed to get it there is beyond me. I'm done with this string of debate, I'm waiting for more, sorry Viper. Just to say debating sake, I forfeit if you post anything in response.

[Luis]

Here is reality<====================================Here is Viper

Man, you are the one who's going way too far with the wishful thinking. Your first post is comprised of delusional expectations rather than realistic outcomes. Viper is much more with his feet on earth than you are, and this comes from someone who disagrees a lot with him.

This thread isn't going to end well.

[Dakota Grabowski]

Also on PC, in terms of visuals and sound nothing was really noticeably better on the platform until Doom 3 and Half-Life 2, at least that was worth two shits to most people.

I'd put Far Cry, Riddick, Battlefield 2, and even, at times, Oblivion look better on the PC. Some may say F.E.A.R., Call of Duty 2, KOTOR and many others look better on the PC than on their Xbox home consoles.

[The Dude]

Here is reality<====================================Here is XboxEvolved

Fixed