Citizen
Business Week: Market Share Predictions - Gates Dismisses Nintendo as "niche player"
Who's Got Game Now?
Friday May 6, 4:11 pm ET
Business Week Online
By Cliff Edwards in San Francisco and Jay Greene in Seattle
Who knew product briefings could be so entertaining? For months, Microsoft Corp. talked up the long-awaited unveiling of its new game console, which is expected to be called Xbox 360, set for May 16. Then Sony Corp. tried to steal Microsoft's thunder by scheduling a news conference a scant three hours earlier to reveal its own console. Microsoft's riposte: a "sneak peek" of the new Xbox during a 30-minute infomercial airing on MTV on May 12. "Everyone's watching what Sony will come out with and what we will come out with and who can be the leader this time around," says Microsoft Chairman William H. Gates III.
Like gunslingers in their own shoot-'em-up games, top console makers are blasting away with marketing salvoes months before products even hit the shelves. Analysts don't expect Xbox 360 to go on sale until November, with machines from Sony and Nintendo Co. coming in early 2006. Still, the company that captures the lead will not only sell the most hardware, it will likely collect the biggest slice of revenues from sales of game software and fees from gamemakers whose titles run on their consoles. They're battling to rule a $24 billion industry that's expected to grow to $27 billion by 2007.
The stakes are even higher than usual with this generation of consoles. These machines are so powerful that they're capable of becoming all-purpose entertainment appliances in the digital home of the future. They will deliver not just games but also music, movies, e-mail, and advertisements. And the top console company will hold sway over the technologies that link home devices -- giving it a leg up in the race to sell scads of related products.
Microsoft did little more than establish a beachhead with its first console, but this time it could do much better. For starters, Xbox 360 will hit stores ahead of PlayStation 3 -- rather than being 20 months behind, as the first Xbox was when it debuted four years ago. Its own Halo 2 was the No. 2-selling game last year. And Microsoft has pulled out the stops to woo gamemakers by making it much easier to create exciting games for Xbox. "Microsoft is finally thinking like a software company -- and about how they can help their partners build games," says Brian J. Farrell, CEO of game developer THQ Inc. Farrell is developing new games designed to harness Xbox' features.
Hotter Technology
Analysts believe Microsoft will gain market share on both rivals. Unlike the last time around, it will have a wide selection of popular games from the get-go. "There will be more games because Xbox is now proven," says equity analyst Edward S. Williams of Harris Nesbitt Corp. Right now Sony has a 69% market share worldwide, vs. 16% for Microsoft and 15% for Nintendo, according to market researcher DFC Intelligence. By the time the next generation peaks, Williams predicts, Microsoft will have 25% market share, Sony 65%, and Nintendo 10%.
That's despite the fact that PlayStation 3 is expected to boast hotter technology. In addition to high-definition graphics and massive processing power in its Cell multimedia chip, it also will offer a new DVD technology called Blu-ray Disc. Unlike Xbox 360, the new PlayStation will be able to run high-definition movies. "We look at delivering a quantum leap in technology, not just Xbox version 1.5," says Sony spokeswoman Molly Smith. But analysts believe it's the games that matter most -- so being a little less hot won't hurt Microsoft much.
Nintendo is a wild card. Executives there say they'll launch their new console, code-named Revolution, around the same time as Sony. But they haven't provided any information so far about its capabilities -- and little has leaked out. Gates dismisses the industry stalwart as a "niche player," but game developers say it's way too early to count Nintendo out.
Microsoft isn't likely to crush the competition. But a year from now the contest between Xbox and PlayStation could be much more even. One thing's sure: All this one-upmanship is going to prove mighty entertaining for gamers.
link: http://search.businessweek.com/Searc...n=BusinessWeek
Penguin... Penguin... Penguin!
Sony, don't get cocky. Xbx 360 ain't half as bad either.
I don't particularly agree with this prediction, but it's a possibility...Right now Sony has a 69% market share worldwide, vs. 16% for Microsoft and 15% for Nintendo, according to market researcher DFC Intelligence. By the time the next generation peaks, Williams predicts, Microsoft will have 25% market share, Sony 65%, and Nintendo 10%.
"Please understand that in cases where the OS itself is acting in an unstable fashion, this software could behave in unpredictable ways. Unfortunately, this happens to be the case at all times with Microsoft OS's." - Japanese PC game disclaimers!
Citizen
But quality games are where the Xbox this generation has lack there of. It has a small library of quality games but pales in comparison to both PS2 and GC. This generation the PS2's third-party support was slightly limited when devs wanted to use some of the Xbox's library of techniques with the Nvidia card, but couldnt with the PS2's GS. Could it be the same in the next-generation, except backwards?Originally Posted by diOndOrAntt
Think about EGM's rumor mill, which at this point we'll take with a grain of salt, however, if its proven true then the extra horsepower is going to be given some use (They stated that some devs went from developing some of their games from the Xbox 360 to the PS3 once they saw the PS3 dev kit.).
The time is coming, we're only mere weeks away.
-Rich
Citizen
This makes me think of when xbox players claimt:
PlayStation 2 = PlayStation 1.5
Seems to me sony is answering the statement
Rebellion
Where is this coming from (playstation 2 = playstation 1.5)?
Its O.K!... I'll take it from here.
ironlungz,
dont worry its just what some people (you could say fanboys) were and most surely still saying about the PS2 versus the current XBOX
they think its so crap (PS2) that its not the PS2 but only a PS1.5
.
actually what was said back in the day is that both Cube and Box are PS21.5. and technically that is rather accurate. Cube and Box are a beefed up PS2. but we cannot by any means judge next-gen without seeing the graphics capabilities of each.
"With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion."
- Steven Weinberg
“If Jesus had been killed twenty years ago, Catholic school children would be wearing little electric chairs around their necks instead of crosses.”
- Lenny Bruce
Citizen
I happend to see the pictures of the new X-Box today and I must say I was rather underwhelmed. The physical design was bland and while thats mainly my opinion it does underscore some lingering doubt's I have had about this upcoming generation for quite sometime now.
I think Microsoft's early launch might cause Sony and Nintendo to rush product to market possibly cutting corners in either quality or features in the process.
I also fail to see how any of these machines will truly stand out with IBM having such a big hand in all three of them. Keep in mind that the gaming industry prides itself on it's participants bringing diffrent things to the table to lure in buyers.
And yet what do we see.
A new Microsoft console that seems a whole lot like a media center PC I could go out and buy right now powered by some sort of IBM chip and an ATI chip of some kind.
A new Nintendo console powered by an IBM chip of some kind and an ATI chip of some kind.
And a Sony console powered by a heavily IBM developed chip and an NVIDIA chip of some kind.
Ofcourse this could end up being a blessing in desguise as it could end up shifting the focus towards the games rather then the hardware itself. And thats what it is all about as most any hardcore gamer would agree.
Yet I still can't get over my doubts and the excitement level for me at this point is nowhere near where it was at this point before the PS2's eventual launch. I feel as though I have heard and seen all of this before. Talk of "revolutions", and "quantum shifts," and faster chips.
While the graphics performance of the new systems probably won't reflect this I really don't see myself ever feeling that this generation will produce anything more then PS 2.5, X-Box 1.5, etc, etc.
Citizen
In some way, it's not necessarily an insult. Maybe what they are talking about is Microsoft not using a next-generation medium, while Sony is; Microsoft using proven technology, while Sony (for the most part) isn't. We'll see soon enough though. (But I think Sony should be able to get a few hits every now and then. Microsoft is the one who made the joke of Sony last E3 with 'The Novice'...)
total destruction
I so remember that.
The Novice
I guess it was a bit hilarious while it lasted. Let's see how round two goes.
Citizen
Sony has to at least give some back to MS. If you guys have read the recent articles MS's ego has been about the size of Kentucky bargging about how good their system is how Sony can't compete etc etc etc. So I don't blame Sony who is generaly quiet to fight back some.
total destruction
Microsoft is pretty much known for taking shots at Sony, and I believe it has a lot to due with envy. These guys have lost quite a large sum of cash on this entire Xbox project. And to make matters worst, they still find it difficult to tread comfortably behind Sony regardless of their effort. When you're not used to being second in line - esspecially a distant second, it eats away at you. The war has only begun, though. Microsoft underestimated Sony before, and it didn't go well at all. I'm not entirely sure this time, but it seems that they are still underestimating them. I guess now we will see how far Sony is willing to go without all the handicaps and stiffer competition this time. But, likewise, I wouldn't doubt any competitive effort in Microsoft's corner neither, but I do sense that that've only steered a queen's nest.
Citizen
It's like the build Microsoft have had in creating a worldwide piece of software - i.e. Windows.
They got in early with a decent GUI and made it work (obviously not from a security PoV).
Sony got in early with the Playstation and because of the benefits of using the Cd's, their console become a huge success and the PS2 is more successful than its predecessor - which is still being made - nearly 11 years after it first emerged.
Additionally, someone said that originally the PsX was to be an extension to the NES/SNES (forget which one), but Nintendo pulled out and Sony released it as their own...
When the pin is pulled, Mr Grenade is not our friend
Veteran Citizen
That is true. I have kown this myself since sometime last year.
Veteran Citizen
n1n9tean wrote:
The original PsX was supposed to be the CD addon to the SNES much like the Genesis had the Sega CD. Nintendo decided after a lot of time and effort put in by Sony that they didn't want to release a CD addon, so Sony tweaked the system and released what we all know as the Playstation... and now they have a huge lead in the console race.the legendary ice man wrote:
Additionally, someone said that originally the PsX was to be an extension to the NES/SNES (forget which one), but Nintendo pulled out and Sony released it as their own...
That is true. I have kown this myself since sometime last year.
Citizen
That story always makes me chuckle when I think about it. You just know that it has to eat away at Nintendo's leadership even today that they cut Sony out and have been paying for it ever since.
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