Waiting for Killzone 3(D)
http://www.gamespot.com/news/2005/04...s_6123335.htmlWedbush Morgan says 360 will herald next-gen's starting gun, but good times for game industry not expected until '07.
There's a sales cycle that tends to repeat itself with each new generation of consoles--one marked by slow sales in the months preceding the new generation as gamers save their money in anticipation of the next big thing, and a subsequent spike in sales in the year following the introduction of the new generation.
In a memo assessing the year in gaming so far, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter cautions against viewing the expected fall release of Microsoft's next console as the beginning of the measurable growth in the next-generation cycle.
"We believe that market perception will cause entertainment software stocks to fluctuate within a narrow range until there is better visibility into software demand," Pachter wrote in his memo. "We think that many investors have misinterpreted the launch of the Xbox 360 as the beginning of the next generation, and expect rapid sales growth in 2006. In contrast, we expect the launch of Sony's PS3 (expected in late 2006) to mark the beginning of the next cycle, and think that rapid sales growth will not materialize until 2007."
This means that the early next-generation sales growth many investors are expecting at the beginning of next year won't materialize as gamers hold off on purchases in anticipation of the PlayStation 3 launch.
Elsewhere in the memo, Pachter predicts that console and PC sales will finish the year up 10 percent over 2004, that a price cut for the redesigned PlayStation 2 will be enacted "no later than fall," and that the PlayStation Portable and Nintendo DS will have similarly successful years, moving 3.5 million and 3.6 million units, respectively.
Not surprisingly, Pachter believes that the PSP will expand the market beyond the younger audience targeted by the DS. He does extend his outlook of how the PSP will impact the game sector by suggesting any upside to software sales for the PSP will correspond to a decline in software sales for other consoles. "We expect the [PSP] to compete with other consoles for both consumers' time and disposable income," Pachter said
Pachter maintains Buy and Hold recommendations on GameStop and Electronics Boutique stock, respectively, saying that while he thinks the recent proposed merger of the two companies is mutually beneficial, it is possible (though unlikely) that the Federal Trade Commission will challenge the merger based on EB's overwhelming concentration in the used games market in the United States.
Overall, Pachter sees little volatility for the companies he covers, saying, "Publisher stock will likely trade in a narrow range over the next few months, due to uncertainty surrounding the impact of the introduction of the Microsoft Xbox 360 console."
So while '05 is looking strong, based on Pachter's assumptions of "a combination of strong release schedule, easy comparisons, and the PSP launch," according to Pachter, the future is less clear. "We think that many investors will be lulled into a false sense of security, causing software publisher stocks to appreciate during the middle part of the year," but then hitting more difficult times in the back of the year. Comps will be "difficult," says Pachter, and "consumer reaction to the Xbox 360 launch may disappoint," leading to share prices that could languish or decline. "We believe that publisher stocks may decline once the summer malaise begins, and once a greater number of investors adopt our thesis that 2006 is the console transition year."
Though I am partial to PS3, I can see the logic in his analysis of the next generation. People (the average gamer) are not swayed so easily into grabbing the "next big thing" that comes out. Most wait and see what it's about and if the thing coming out after it (PS3) has more going on.
Originally Posted by Al Hastings, Chief Technology Officer Insomniac Games
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I think a console’s ‘timeline’ has more to due with this than X2 being released first in particular- or Rev for that matter. You see, MS is indeed rushing the next gen cycle as witnessed by comments from Ninty and Sony heads as well as market heavy weights and publishers.
Another thing is, because of X2 being alone, you can’t really say that the new-gen has started to swarm world wide until all three are out in at least 2 major regions.
So, again, I say this is a matter of timing and spread needed to officially declare by everyone that next-gen is here.
In any case, X2 will certainly kick things off.
"With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion."
- Steven Weinberg
“If Jesus had been killed twenty years ago, Catholic school children would be wearing little electric chairs around their necks instead of crosses.”
- Lenny Bruce
Citizen
I think he is wrong. It starts with Microsoft.
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well, a lot do not consider Dreamcast as being current gen though it is. I see X2 being judged the same way due to similar time difference between them and the compitition.
in any case, this is not an issue. rather, it is curious gusses.
"With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion."
- Steven Weinberg
“If Jesus had been killed twenty years ago, Catholic school children would be wearing little electric chairs around their necks instead of crosses.”
- Lenny Bruce
Veteran Citizen
the sad part is he is probly right about ps3 being released in late 2006-early 2007 :cry:
Im not a baby, Ima MAN, Ima an ANCHORMAN
WAH WAH WAH! sometimes people make me laugh with their whining! Here's the deal.....let M$ come out with their '360' nice and early (like dreamcast) and we can enjoy the last year of our PS2, before the real deal is released..PS3. I can deal with PS2 graphics for a year after the 360 is released..it's not a big deal. I don't see why some people get all worked up over the fact that PS3 will be releasing 6 months later or a year....all we know is the PS3 will be WORTH the wait.
PSN: iNdieKid
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NO. 21, We'll Never Forget You
E-mpirial Plenipotentiary
The problem comes in that they don't all think it's worth the wait. Right now, the Xbox is selling as much and sometimes better than the PS2 in the US.
You guys are making the same mistake that Nintendo did...underestimated the competition. Grew arrogant and perceived to be indestructable.
Trust me, and I'm no Xbox fan, it starts this fall.
The current US government is the type of government the founding fathers fought against and warned us about.
America, the Dr. will free you now.
Sound Engineering
My whole assesment is that the PS3 is a TRUE revoltuion in and of itself.
This is a third generation console that has dominated the marketa and is, in a sense, totally redesigned.
Xbox is a powerful machine, but doesn't offer anything that can't necessarily be obtained on a PC.
It is also just a second generation console and Microsoft is still a runt in the console industry(with lots to learn).
Also, being a software company they kind of have an edge, but this will keep SONY on their toes - I actually love the PS-UI sony delivers and only hope the online software will be able to hold its own this time around.
it should be interesting
total destruction
Although I have to agree with Viper on the underestimation of the competition, I agree that I, too, would like to see a better online server from Sony next-gen. IMO, their online service is great because it's open to everyone with very little cost if any. It's said that their PSP online will follow the same trend as far as being cheap to connect and open to everyone. Hopefully, the PS3 will do the same.My whole assesment is that the PS3 is a TRUE revoltuion in and of itself.
This is a third generation console that has dominated the marketa and is, in a sense, totally redesigned.
Xbox is a powerful machine, but doesn't offer anything that can't necessarily be obtained on a PC.
It is also just a second generation console and Microsoft is still a runt in the console industry(with lots to learn).
Also, being a software company they kind of have an edge, but this will keep SONY on their toes - I actually love the PS-UI sony delivers and only hope the online software will be able to hold its own this time around.
it should be interesting
Citizen
i think sony have plowed much more effort into software and emulation this time. They're going to make a much bigger deal of online gaming i hope.
NIN
We can only find out until E3 comes. After E3 is when I can see for myself what can we be expecting. Oh and by the way Z, how many days do we have till E3? 8)
Waiting for Killzone 3(D)
I can answer that!
http://www.us.playstation.com/Conten...o/default.aspx
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14 days to E3 and counting!
I could swear that time is getting slower and slower. The last 2 days before the mega event will last a month!
"With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion."
- Steven Weinberg
“If Jesus had been killed twenty years ago, Catholic school children would be wearing little electric chairs around their necks instead of crosses.”
- Lenny Bruce
Citizen
PS2 decides when we move. While X2 might get good take up its unlikely to rival 80Million users (or potential users), when the PS3 moves in and people start picking up the generation thing then we move, however until the PS2 starts to move out of the scene we still have a massive user base in the current generation, as with this generation Sony decide basically when to move (within a time frame, if they say go 5 years after X2 they will lose). MS sets the start of the time frame, after that Sony has what a year to maybe 2 to make the move before X2 picks up enough steam to become a juggernaught.
The ultimate wet blanket
A fundamental basis for the statement is simply that the real kick in the pants that will get the ball rolling is when there's competition going on. I think in the timespan between 360 and PS3, the bulk of that time may be spent establishing certain practices that will really work well.
For that matter, you just know that 360 is going to see a sharp decline in price right when PS3 comes out for that very reason.
Cell phones have changed mankind. Finally, men have something they can flip out and argue "mine is smaller than yours."
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I cannot see MS cutting X2’s price in a mere 6 month window- unless they intentionally price it to high in the first place in anticipation for such a move.
"With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion."
- Steven Weinberg
“If Jesus had been killed twenty years ago, Catholic school children would be wearing little electric chairs around their necks instead of crosses.”
- Lenny Bruce
Veteran Citizen
Believe it, if they can do it they will. When Microsoft launched Xbox here in Australia, it was originally going for $650AUD if I remember correctly. Not too long afterwards Nintendo Launched Gamecube for $400AUD, however just before they launched Microsoft dropped the price of Xbox to $400AUD so not to be outdone, Nintendo then launched Gamecube at $325AUD.
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I think ,in almost any field, a generation starts by either having new strong multiple competitors on the market, or the undisputed leader offers the next big thing. So it will be by either when PS3 comes out, or when both Rev and X2 are out. Since there isn’t a big difference expected between Rev and PS3, there you have it.
"With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion."
- Steven Weinberg
“If Jesus had been killed twenty years ago, Catholic school children would be wearing little electric chairs around their necks instead of crosses.”
- Lenny Bruce
Citizen
I think in this it's too hard to tell at the moment.
Nintendo have learnt from their mistakes and whether the things slated for their new console are actually, they might prove to be quite a large contender - much more so than in current system
When the pin is pulled, Mr Grenade is not our friend
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